Most Important in Decades

US and Ukrainian Presidents Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky. Kyiv, 20 February 2023

The American presidential election will decide the future of the US and the fate of the Russia-Ukraine war

The US presidential election is usually considered by the world as the most important election. Next year’s ballot can easily be described as the most important election not only of the year, but perhaps of several decades. The vote on 5 November 2024 will decide not only the future of the US, but also the fate of the Russia-Ukraine war, the largest conflict in Europe since World War II.

The race for the Republican nomination will begin with the Iowa primary on 15 January. Polls show Donald Trump’s growing popularity on the right. Based on early December polls, the former president’s nomination is a given. Sixty per cent of Republican voters want to vote for him, while his chief competitors, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, barely cross the threshold of 10 per cent. Joe Biden’s lead among Democrats is even greater, hardly a surprise given that Americans typically expect an incumbent to seek re-election after a first term. This means a rerun of 2020 this coming November, at least in terms of casting. Biden and Trump are neck and neck in the national polls, but most of the swing states favour the Republican.