The World in Numbers: Industries

Ten business trends for 2024, and forecasts for 15 industries. A global round-up from The Economist Intelligence Unit

Business Environment

Geopolitics will again loom large in 2024, as US-China tensions mount and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza rumble on. Inflation will fall and interest rates level off; supply-chain kinks will ease, along with commodity prices. But global GDP will grow by only 2.2 per cent amid lacklustre expansions in rich countries. Developing economies will do better, though China will lose corporate investment to competitors. Companies will face new environmental rules and perhaps a global minimum tax rate.

Automotive

The car industry will stay in low gear in 2024. Global sales will miss pre-pandemic levels, with just 3 per cent more new cars and 1 per cent more commercial vehicles sold than in 2023. Diesel will fall foul of more low-emission zones, as French cities go off-limits. But electric vehicles (EVs) will speed ahead. Nearly 25 per cent of new cars will be plug-ins, over half sold in China. The barely profitable market for EVs will still rely on government support. Chinese carmakers will benefit from extended tax breaks (and rising exports). American buyers will be able to transfer tax credits for EVs to dealers, lowering sticker prices. Britain’s carmakers must make plug-ins 22 per cent of sales and pay post-Brexit tariffs if vehicles do not use enough locally made parts.

Similar content rules will rankle widely, as America, China, Japan and the EU compete for investment in EV and battery production. America will gain from the USD 108 billion or so promised towards this end, nearly doubling its battery capacity. Renault intends to list its electrics business, Ampere, with its partner, Nissan, taking a stake. Tesla-type chargers will vie with European and Chinese ones, as network standards diverge. Autonomous driving will get new rules in the EU as well as a federal regulator in Washington.

Defence and Aerospace

As Ukraine fights on and US-China relations fester, military powers will increase defence budgets. Around a third of NATO members are expected to hit a long-standing target of spending over 2 per cent of GDP on defence – a welcome 75th-birthday present for the alliance. Finland, a new recruit to NATO, will be among them. Britain and Poland will stay nicely on target but France will record a near miss. Sweden, another new joiner, will also fall short.