opinion

Poland’s European Drift

Poland's potential to take a prominent place in the European Union and make the most of opportunities is at risk of being squandered

The good news at the start of the new year is that after 2022, a dramatic year for the world, the probability of Polexit has fallen to almost zero in the foreseeable future. Polexit has always been a so-called minority scenario and a path Poland could find itself on as a result of the unforeseen consequences of contesting the EU and democratic rulebook by the current authorities in Warsaw. The bad news is that Poland is, and will continue to be, far from realising its full political and economic potential.

A revolt against Europe, grandly proclaimed as a 'cultural revolution' by Jarosław Kaczyński and Viktor Orban seven years ago at the Economic Forum in Krynica, is dying before our eyes, having hit the wall of hard economic and political realities. The former includes slowing growth, low investment, the end of cheap money, high inflation, the energy crisis and increased defence spending. This is why the cocky declarations by Warsaw and Budapest that they would not succumb to the 'blackmail' of European money to abandon their quest to destroy the rule of law and break up Europe from within gave way to desperate attempts to make concessions, so that the funds would flow after all. Additionally, Brexit, previously feted by the ruling camp in Poland, turned out to be a very informative natural experiment. Instead of the promised economic paradise and increased role of the UK in global affairs, Brexit has plunged the country into an economic quagmire accompanied by social tensions; a challenge that the fifth consecutive prime minister since the Brexit referendum is unable to resolve. Instead of becoming a catalyst for the 'cultural revolution', Brexit has made it clear, even to Eurosceptics, how jumping into an empty pool ends.