OPINION

The Euro in Poland? It’s Time for a Radical Shift in Perspective

Some of the important benefits resulting from Poland joining the eurozone could be achieved by just making a credible declaration of intent to apply for membership

Since the 2015 parliamentary elections, the ruling camp has been amending the law in a manner that, in sum, can be described as institutionalising economic and political populism. If the opposition does not win the 2023 elections, the Polish model of capitalism, severely weakened by politicisation, statism and monopolisation, will undergo a permanent and probably irreversible transformation, resulting in lower development dynamics and greater vulnerability to crises.

Notably, the decomposition of the existing capitalism model would then proceed under the continued influence of the delayed impact of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and high inflation. In such circumstances, a renewed, stronger focus on the European integration process would be the best way to mitigate these risks. This is why it is becoming so important to advocate measures aimed at Poland joining the eurozone.

Stronger Ties with the European Union

Regardless of the traditionally cited benefits, four arguments in favour of membership are now playing a key role: 1. reinforced entrenchment of Poland’s systemic transformation legacy and a Polish variant of the EU model of capitalism; 2. reduced risk of polexit and withdrawal of EU institutions and standards from Poland; 3. lower debt servicing costs and reduced likelihood of a financial (currency or banking) crisis; and 4. smaller expenditures required for any specific increase in armament levels. A significant part of these benefits could be achieved by simply making a credible declaration of intent to apply for membership.

The above arguments are even more important in an election year. Forcing the current government to engage in a serious and honest debate on the euro would test the sincerity and credibility of its official intentions to remain in the European Union, as well as to obtain funds under the NRP (Recovery and Resilience Facility). Moreover, it would force the government to fill its hollow platitudes about defending economic and political sovereignty with enough substance to enable a meaningful pre-election discussion on Poland’s strategy in the face of current powerful geopolitical challenges. It would be good to get the ruling coalition to articulate whether there is an alternative to stronger EU ties in this situation, what it is, and, above all, what the cost of such an alternative would be.