War Without End

Ukrainian soldier at Bakhmut, 13 December 2023

Speaking about Ukraine’s readiness to talk to Russia makes no sense. Nor does the Kremlin itself want negotiations

Ukraine’s biggest successes in the war with Russia may already be behind it. And Volodymyr Zelensky’s December visits to Washington and Brussels show the direction in which the West’s policy towards Kyiv is heading.

US Republicans have made no secret of the fact that it is money for Ukraine that is being held hostage in the debate about migrants from Mexico. It is most likely for this reason that President Joe Biden ‘pumped up’ the aid package for Kyiv by requesting Congress to agree to USD 61 billion. The White House predicts that this is likely to be the last such large tranche of aid, while the increase in the sum serves to negotiate with the Republicans – so that there is something to give up. The Democratic administration hopes that – as a minimum – it manages to maintain the autumn amount of around USD 20 billion.

It is similar in the EU. Victor Orbán also constructed a fairly straightforward deal: he demanded the unblocking of EUR 30 billion for Hungary from the National Reconstruction Plan and the Cohesion Fund in exchange for giving up his veto on a EUR 50 billion programme to support Ukraine. The European Commission tried at the beginning to argue that there was no question of combining the two topics. Finally, Balázs Orbán, the head of Hungary’s Prime Minister’s Office, in an interview with Bloomberg explicitly said that if all EU money for his country was unblocked, then the government would withdraw the veto.