Hard Numbers

The economy has dodged a recession, but it is not out of the woods yet

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

America’s economy in 2023 provided a lesson in humility for forecasters. Before the year began, almost all predicted that it was heading for sluggish growth at best, and a recession at worst. The logic was simple: beating inflation was bound to be painful. Instead, America powered ahead at an annualised pace of roughly 2 per cent growth, even as inflation receded.