Europe Trapped

The great energy transition has pushed Europe to the brink of an economic disaster. The plan was excellent in theory, but the risks were miscalculated and no allowance was made for alternative outcomes.

Hernán Cortés off the coast of Mexico, 19th century engraving

“We will drill, baby, drill and by doing that we will lead a large-scale decline in prices”. This is how Donald Trump began his speech on 19 July 2024, accepting the nomination for the presidential race at the Republican National Convention. Trump went on to make other promises after invoking the somewhat forgotten slogan “Drill, baby, drill”, which was promoted in 2008 by the then governor of Maryland, Michael Steele. “By slashing energy costs, we will in turn reduce the cost of transportation, manufacturing and all household goods. We have more liquid gold under our feet than any other country by far. We are a nation that has the opportunity to make an absolute fortune with its energy”, he claimed. He also told us what his plans were for the money: “And all of the trillions of dollars that are sitting there not yet spent, we will redirect that money for important projects like roads, bridges, dams and we will not allow it to be spent on the meaningless Green New scam ideas”.

But if someone wants to sell something, there has to be a willing buyer. There is no need to guess who the new US administration sees as the consumer. Just listen to the conversation popular US podcast author and investor Anthony Pompliano posted on YouTube on 28 October 2024. His guest was Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and BGC Group, whom Trump intends to appoint as Secretary of Commerce. Lutnick started outlining his plans with a series of rhetorical questions. “Do you know how much oil Korea has? Zero. And they are our ally. Do you know how much oil Germany has? They also need it. They are our ally... if we sell them oil. How much oil does Japan have? Zero”, said Lutnick, who has spent his entire adult life dealing in money and securities. “We will sell it to them. We will have better trade deals. Thank God for America”, he announced, smiling like the cat who caught the canary. That said, the Trump administration’s plans for a return to fossil fuels may turn out to be the only viable option for the “canary” to survive the next few years, though at the expense of contributing to the construction or refurbishment of infrastructure such as highways, bridges and dams in the US.