Jasny umysł
Clear Mind (2)
Lubimy myśleć, że jesteśmy ludźmi racjonalnymi. Jednak w rzeczywistości jesteśmy podatni na setki udowodnionych błędów poznawczych, które powodują, że myślimy i działamy nieracjonalnie. Tak często słyszymy lub czytamy o sukcesie innych, że zaczynamy wierzyć, iż założenie doskonale prosperującego biznesu, zbicie fortuny na giełdzie lub błyskotliwa kariera w korporacji są łatwe do osiągnięcia. Fakt, że bardzo rzadko lub prawie nigdy nie słyszymy o tych, którym się nie powiodło, sprawia, iż trudno ustrzec się przed błędem myślowym nazywanym przez psychologów błędem przeżywalności.
Beware of success stories!
Co z tym sukcesem?
During World War II, military engineers wanted to figure out how to make bomber planes safer for the pilots who risked their lives flying them. When the engineers looked at the planes which returned after battles, they saw that bullet damage occurred in three main places: the wings, the body, and the rear gunner. They concluded that these were the very places which should be reinforced with extra armour. They had no idea, however, how utterly wrong they were. Fortunately for the army, it had the help of a statistician named Abraham Wald. These planes, Wald pointed out, had survived being hit and returned to their base while others had not. The missing aircrafts, with their locations of bullet holes, were never seen by the commanders and therefore not taken into account. It only proved that a plane could get shot multiple times in the wings, body, and rear gunner and still manage to fly. The engineers had to admit that his way of reasoning made it clear that it was the rest of the plane that needed reinforcement.
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