Czasami dobrze być pesymistą

It is good to be pessimistic at times

How much confidence should we have in our knowledge or abilities?

Survey results show that about 84% of Frenchmen believe that they are above-average lovers while statistically, the figure should be around 50% because what is called ‘median’ in statistics means that about 50% of respondents should rank higher and 50% of respondents should rank lower. In another survey 93% of American students asked, estimated themselves to be better than average drivers and 68% of the faculty at the University of Nebraska rated themselves in the top 25% for teaching abilities. Our natural tendency to overestimate our knowledge and abilities does not rest with the French or the academics only. In a 2006 study entitled ‘Behaving Badly’, a researcher James Montier found that 74% of the 300 professional fund managers surveyed believed that they had delivered above-average job performance. Of the remaining 26% surveyed, the majority viewed themselves as average. Incredibly, almost 100% of the survey group believed that their job performance was average or better. Clearly, only 50% of the sample can be above average, suggesting the irrationally high level of overconfidence these fund managers exhibited. People’s irrational overconfidence also applies to the ethical correctness of their acts and judgments. In one survey, more people thought that they would go to heaven than that Mother Teresa would! Other individuals surveyed reported that they were twice as likely to follow the Ten Commandments as other people and 92% of Americans report that they are satisfied with their own character. The same overconfidence manifests itself in the workplace where impossibly high percentages of people believe they are more ethical than their competitors and colleagues.