Wars Are Won by Economies

Russia has not prepared for such a war, their capabilities are shrinking. We enjoy the support of the civilised world. But it will still be very hard

Serhiy Hrabski in an interview with Michał Potocki

Let’s start with 24 February 2022. Did you expect it?

We started to look closely at the suspicious movements of the Russian army in March 2021. By analysing the situation, we came to the conclusion that it was merely a demonstration of force as their numbers would not be sufficient to occupy Ukraine. It looked like stretching troops along the border rather than a serious operation. We knew the operating principles followed by the Russians; after all, we had studied at the same academies...

So you know how they think.

Yes, because we studied the same stuff, and nothing has changed for them. It was only in the second half of January 2022 that some movements began, suggesting that they were planning something. The alarm rang when they formed second-line troops in the Belgorod region, near Kharkiv, but on the other side of the border. Another signal was the increased activity of reconnaissance and diversion groups. However, there were no signs until 23 February in terms of the numbers, quality and composition of troops that the Russians might start a war on such scale. This is why I see their attack as a kind of brawl. Let me elaborate: on 23 February at 11.30 p.m., I contacted friends in the Special Forces. They said that something had started in the east of the country and that a decision had been made to withdraw their men from there. I asked them to confirm by 2 a.m. that they were no longer in Mariupol or Severodonetsk. They did so and I went to bed. I was convinced that, given the circumstances, such a brawl was not possible. The Russians stood no chance. It was laughable! After all, not a single city with a population of one million had been taken by force since World War II. When I arrived in Lviv after the invasion began, as ordered by the leadership, I asked how many strikes there had been. They said, 186. I asked: Is this a joke?. The answer was no, because even they did not understand what that attack had to do with the theory of offensive operation.