Artykuł
Miscalculations of the West
If Russia occupies Ukraine, it will then annex Belarus and Moldova. And at the same time, it will redirect all its forces to waging a hybrid war against Poland, Romania and the Baltic States
Krzysztof Wojczal in an interview with Maciej Miłosz
Krzysztof Wojczal Lawyer, publicist, analyst, and author of the book „The Third Decade. The World Today and in 10 Years”.
Krzysztof Wojczal Lawyer, publicist, analyst, and author of the book „The Third Decade. The World Today and in 10 Years”.
Back in 2019, you predicted that by 2022 Russia would attack Ukraine or trigger a major war in the region. What surprised you most about the course of the conflict?
Lack of adequate preparation on the part of the Russians to carry out the operation they had decided on - as a result, they used up their resources very quickly. The Ukrainians were quite lucky, as Moscow had the potential to succeed quickly.
And the reaction of the West did not surprise you?
The West, despite appearances to the contrary, has acted sluggishly. And it was not its assistance that stopped the Russians. It was their own incompetence, unfounded self-confidence and the weather that did it. The West is helping Kyiv - certainly much more than many expected - but still, this help is not at the level required for it to win. It has been a year since the second invasion of Ukraine, and only now is there talk of sending Western tanks. And this equipment is long overdue in Ukraine.
It is we - on behalf of Kyiv - who have to use all sorts of political and diplomatic tricks to force Western partners to decide on such support. Time-consuming games are being played as the Russians prepare to strike again. At this point, the Ukrainians should already be driving Western tanks and flying Western fighters. My impression is that because of the euphoria of stopping the first Russian strike, the West started to think that the Ukrainians had already won. Today we can see how wrong these calculations were.
